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  • Relatively Sharp Losses, but Nothing Special in The Bigger Picture May 28, 2024
    Relatively Sharp Losses, but Nothing Special in The Bigger Picture Bonds began the day modestly stronger, and that was their first mistake.  Starting around 10am, the gains began evaporating following comments from Fed's Kashkari (who needs to see "many" more months of good inflation before considering a cut) and a big pop in consumer confidence […]
  • Rates Jump to Highest Levels in More Than 3 Weeks May 28, 2024
    It was a mini rollercoaster of a day for mortgage rates with the average lender starting the day at lower levels than Friday only to end at the highest levels since May 3rd.  The weakness was driven by a combination of economic data, comments from Fed officials, and weaker US Treasury auctions. There are several […]
  • Limited Calendar, But Less Limited Than Last Week May 28, 2024
    Last week was notable for its absence of any notable developments--an outcome we considered to be the "guilty until proven innocent" baseline and the reason we referred to the past 11 days as an 11 day weekend.  As the new, holiday-shortened week gets underway, bonds have yet to break outside the range boundaries from the […]
  • Social Security, LOS, AI Doc Assist Products; Webinars and Training; Turn Off Auto VOEs May 28, 2024
    “Scientists got together to study the effects of alcohol on a person’s walk, and the result was staggering.” The news impacting human life and property over the weekend was truly staggering, ranging from one (Bill Walton, basketball player) to possibly thousands (buried alive from a landslide in Papua New Guinea, north of Australia). More than […]
  • The 11-Day Weekend is Now Official May 24, 2024
    The 11-Day Weekend is Now Official If there was one objective hurdle to clear in order to consider the present week completely uneventful in terms of big picture rate momentum, it would have been that the 10yr Treasury yield hold inside the 4.34 - 4.50 range.  Thanks to today's friendly revision in consumer inflation expectations, the […]
  • Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week May 24, 2024
    It was largely a dull week for financial markets in terms of scheduled data and volatility, but numerous Fed speeches helped reiterate what the market thought it already knew.  Specifically, whereas there was widespread belief in several rate cuts in 2024, the market now only expects 1.  The following chart shows the market's expectations for the […]
  • Broker Products; Legal Thoughts on Dual Licensing; Agency and Investor News; Interview With Tour de France Rider May 24, 2024
    "Abandon all hope ye who enter here." (Dante’s words, not Disney’s.) That could be the slogan of Times Square, but for those who just spent days at the Secondary conference in Times Square, trying to avoid everything in Times Square, you can look forward to the same event at the same place in the same […]
  • A Great Case For Durable Goods Irrelevance May 24, 2024
    If there were any remaining doubts regarding the relevance of Durable Goods as a big ticket market mover, they are put to rest by the absence of a discernible reaction despite a very big beat. In other words, +0.7 vs -0.8 is significant, but the market movement has been nil. Granted, the negative revision to […]
  • Sleepy Bonds Rudely Roused by Surprisingly Strong Econ Data May 23, 2024
    Surprisingly Strong Surge in Services PMI Tests The Range Perhaps fate was tempted by our persistent focus on this week's absence of big ticket market movers.  Or perhaps this is simply the biggest possible reaction to one of the week's only potential market movers coming in MUCH higher than expected.  After all, the mantra has […]
  • Mortgage Rates Jump to 2-Week Highs After Hotter Economic Data May 23, 2024
    For the most part, the current week is sorely lacking in the sort of scheduled economic data and events that typically contribute to exciting movement in the interest rate world.  This morning's report on the services sector offered one of the only potential exceptions.  For those looking for at least a little excitement, the data […]
Mortgage Rates Start Higher, But Improve in The Afternoon

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates are only adjusted once per day by default. From there, the underlying bond market would need to improve or deteriorate by a certain amount for the average lender to go to the trouble of a mid-day reprice. A small handful of lenders did that last Friday (bonds were deteriorating), […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

MBS RECAP: Treasuries Slide Sideways as MBS Outperform

Posted To: MBS CommentaryTreasuries Slide Sideways as MBS Outperform The most notable development today was the outperformance on the part of MBS. The most obvious culprit would be the looming Treasury auction cycle logically causing more anxiety for Treasuries. There’s also the distinct steepening of the yield curve, which tends to favor MBS when it’s […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

Existing Home Sales Back on the Rise as Inventories Improve

Posted To: MND NewsWireExisting homes sales posted the second consecutive increase in July after breaking out of a slump in June that had endured for four months. The National Association of Realtors®, (NAR) said sales of pre-owned single-family houses, town houses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million […]

August 23, 2021

Jann Swanson

MBS Week Ahead: What is Jackson Hole (And What it Isn’t)

Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium has often served as a venue for the Fed Chair to offer a sneak preview of impending policy changes or simply to provide a more candid assessment of how the Fed may react to potential changes in employment and inflation heading into the new year. While […]

August 23, 2021

Matthew Graham

Ops, MLO jobs; Whole Loan Sales, Jumbo, QC, Home Buying Education Products; Freddie and Fannie Changes

Posted To: Pipeline PressFires in California, floods in Tennessee, hurricanes in New York, COVID hospitalizations seemingly everywhere written up by the press. The “fun” never ends. Here in Orange County, at the California MBA’s Western Secondary, the talk in the hallways is focused not so much on huge shifts, because it looks like Freddie, Fannie, […]

August 23, 2021

Rob Chrisman

Rates Stuck in The Middle

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchRates are on hold until the next chapter is written in the complex saga of covid versus the market. This isn’t to say rates perfectly flat–simply that the prevailing momentum has been sideways for the past few weeks. Since mortgage rates only change once or twice a day, we can use […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

MBS RECAP: Moderate Weakness For Uneventful Reasons

Posted To: MBS CommentaryModerate Weakness For Uneventful Reasons Bonds lost some ground today with 10yr yields up roughly 2bps heading into the 3pm CME close and 2.0 MBS down an eighth of a point. Viewed holistically, the week was very calm and yields ended right in the middle of the range (1.22-1.30% in the narrowest […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

Fannie Mae Says COVID-19 Surge Won’t Impact Growth. Probably.

Posted To: MND NewsWireFannie Mae’s economists provided a mixed forecast this month. The baseline view of the company’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group is for the recent virus surge to drag modestly on consumers’ services consumption in the near term and modestly worsen supply chain disruptions abroad, but they don’t think it will prevent […]

August 20, 2021

Jann Swanson

Although Dwindling, Serious Delinquencies Still a Concern

Posted To: MND NewsWireThe federal foreclosure moratoria expired at the end of July and, with some 1.45 million borrowers seriously delinquent on their mortgages but not in foreclosure, Black Knight says, “potential foreclosure activity in the coming months warrants close observation.” The majority of those seriously delinquent mortgages, however, are still in active forbearance plans. […]

August 20, 2021

Jann Swanson

Sales Mgt., MLO Jobs; HELOC, Warehouse, Blockchain, Licensing Tools; News on Jumbo and Non-QM Products

Posted To: Pipeline PressWho wants to work on a Friday in summer? Not me! I was pleased to find the Type The Alphabet Game , which times you on how fast you type the alphabet. Fun, and doesn’t take much time. For something different, and some of you may need a tissue when reading it, […]

August 20, 2021

Rob Chrisman

MBS Day Ahead: Random Volatility Risks As Traders Tune Out

Posted To: MBS CommentaryIt’s a good time to revisit the primer on illiquidity unless the term is 2nd nature for you ( here it is ). Illiquidity is definitely a factor today as traders have undoubtedly targeted it as a perfect candidate for a 3-5 day weekend due to the absence of any relevant events […]

August 20, 2021

Matthew Graham

Fannie’s New Rental History Credit Boost Not as Simple as it Sound

Posted To: MND NewsWireIt seemed like a simple solution for expanding the credit profile of many first-time homebuyers, but Fannie Mae’s new plan to utilize rent payment history to that end will not immediately remedy the situation. Linda Goodman and Jun Zhu, in a new post on the Urban Institute’s (UI’s) Urban Wire blog, say […]

August 19, 2021

Jann Swanson

Builders Pull Back on Housing Starts

Posted To: MND NewsWireIt seemed like a simple solution for expanding the credit profile of many first-time homebuyers, but Fannie Mae’s new plan to utilize rent payment history to that end will not immediately remedy the situation. Linda Goodman and Jun Zhu, in a new post on the Urban Institute’s (UI’s) Urban Wire blog, say […]

August 19, 2021

Jann Swanson

MBS RECAP: Bonds Finally Have a Boring Day

Posted To: MBS CommentaryBonds Finally Have a Boring Day 10yr yields traded in a range of less than 3bps during the domestic session today. From 10:30am on, that range narrowed to only 1bp. We haven’t had a day like this in a while–3+ weeks at the very least. When things are flat and boring, there’s […]

August 19, 2021

Matthew Graham

Mortgage Rates Near 2-Week Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were slightly lower today as the bond market improved for the 2nd straight day. When bonds prices move higher, bond yields (or rates) move lower, all other things being equal. In the current case, bonds were generally cautious heading into yesterday’s reading of the minutes from the most recent […]

August 19, 2021

Matthew Graham

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